Harry Reid has recklessly proclaimed that all is lost in Iraq and that American forces should be withdrawn regardless of the consequences.  As outrageous as this is, 54% of Americans on Fox News poll of April 17-18 supported setting a deadline for withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.  That support is grounded in:

· Their weariness of the war.

· Ignorance of the war strategy of America’s enemies.

· Ignorance of the full potential consequences of retreat.

· A loss of confidence in the President and the Republican Party.

These realities represent a huge opportunity for the Republican Party to more fully disclose radical Islam’s strategy for the destruction of America, and the severe potential consequences of retreat from Iraq.  If this is done effectively, the Republicans can regain the confidence of a majority of the American people, and position themselves for a huge victory in 2008.

The Iraq situation is complex and a comprehensive analysis of the key issues is what is missing from the debate.  I hope you will invest the time to read this analysis in its entirety in the interest of a full consideration of these critical issues and political opportunities.  Below is a summary of specific strategies that should be vigorously pursued by the Republican Party:

Better Define The Enemy & Their Strategy

The USA faces a relentless assault from radical Islam, but neither political party is providing effective leadership to counter their strategy.  Democrats have embraced defeat and the Republicans have failed to fully articulate the threat or the consequences.  By contrast, America’s enemies are highly intelligent and tenacious manipulators of the flaws in the American political system.  Their plan for victory over America is grounded in their belief that:

· They have more intellect, patience and resolve than apathetic American voters.

· They can use the American media to divide America and destroy it from within.

· The Democrat’s reckless lust for power offers a means to destroy America.

· The Republicans are too politically inept to fully expose or defeat their strategy.

The Democrat Party and their allies in the liberal media and the “Anti-War Movement” have become de facto allies of radical Islam’s strategy to destroy America, but the Republican Party has failed articulate this reality in terms that the American people can understand.

Better Define the Strategic & Economic Consequences of Retreat

Democrats view the Iraq war as a tool to seize political power with no regard for America’s national security interests.  Their scheme is working because Republicans have failed to fully inform Americans about the economic and strategic catastrophe that would follow a retreat from Iraq.  The unavoidable but seldom discussed strategic facts of Iraq are:

· America imports almost two thirds of the oil that runs the American economy.

· Over two thirds of the world's oil reserves are in the Middle East.

· The American economy will collapse without access to low cost crude oil.

·  A military retreat from Iraq could plausibly unleash a sequence of events that would allow Iran, Russia and Venezuela to control almost 85% of the world's oil reserves.  Such control would position those countries to devastate the American economy and the American way of life.

The failure to fully educate the American people about these realities is one of a series of political mistakes that the Republicans have made that allowed the Democrats to gain control of Congress. This control has offered the Democrats a strong platform to espouse their demagoguery on the war, and mislead American public opinion to serve their political ambitions.

Republicans Should Confront & Reverse Their Mistakes

Below is a summary of key mistakes the Republicans have made that must be accepted before they can be overcome:

· President Bush’s political and operational administration of the war has been highly ineffective for years. He disbanded the Iraqi army, and he failed to fill the void with enough troops to subdue the insurgency. He also created a pool of unemployed ex-soldiers to drive the insurgency. There were countless other errors in judgment, but I will not dwell on them here. The bottom line is the Republicans in Congress should have done a lot more to counter the President’s ineptitude.

· The Republican Party controlled Congress and the White House until 2007, but it failed to call for significant increases in America’s ground force capabilities. It persisted in this failure long after it became clear the current force structure was inadequate to fight a long term war of attrition with radical Islam.

· Republicans relied too heavily on reserve and National Guard troops to execute the war in Iraq. The difficulties with this approach exposed the flaws in America’s military force structure for all our enemies to see. This weakness emboldened our enemies, while disheartening the troops themselves.

· The President continued to support the concept of a unified Iraq long after it became clear that the sectarian divisions were too deep. He refused to support a partition of Iraq into three sectarian areas even though it would be in the interest of all concerned.

· Republicans deferred execution of the “surge” strategy until after public support for the war eroded below majority levels.

· Republicans failed to define the strategic and economic necessity of a long term commitment to Iraq, or to offer Americans a plan for ultimate success.

· Most importantly, the Republican Party as a whole inexplicably refused to:

§ Disclose America’s strategic and economic vulnerabilities to Americans.

§ Define the war as necessary to maintain a strong deterrent to Iranian ambitions to control all of the Middle East oil reserves.

§ To point out the consequences of such control to the American economy and the financial well being of every American.

This was a huge missed opportunity to define retreat from the war in terms that could adversely affect every American. The absence of this credible rationale is why many have lost faith in the necessity of the war and lost confidence in Republican leadership. This ultimately resulted in the Republican defeat in the November 2006 elections.

Most Republicans may intuitively understand these realities.  However, they have also allowed the Democrats to tie the country’s fate in Iraq to the success of the “surge” rather than making the overwhelming case that America must make a long term military force commitment in Iraq to protect America’s most vital security interests.  This huge political error has opened their strategy to criticism every time Al Qaeda succeeds in a bombing in Iraq.

Detail the Harsh Realities of Retreat from Iraq

Republicans must forcefully make the case that there is no responsible way America can leave Iraq for the foreseeable future for the following key reasons:

· A departure of American forces from the region would leave a human catastrophe in Iraq that would be a betrayal of the people there who have supported us.  It would turn our friends in Iraq into enemies.

· America’s strategic defeat in Iraq would be a huge victory for radical Islam that would turbo-charge their recruiting and fund raising efforts. It would also embolden them to attack America more aggressively, and offer them a platform for training of terrorists.

· The chaos that follows an American retreat would give Iraq’s Shi’a leaders the pretext to turn to Iran and perhaps Syria for assistance in quelling the violence much as Lebanon turned to Syria in the 1980s. America would be in no position to object because it would have abdicated its moral responsibility to protect Iraqi civilians.

· An American withdrawal would also be a betrayal of America’s allies in the region who rely on the USA to provide military protection of the Middle East oilfields. Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the small Gulf States, and Afghanistan could all be placed in severe peril of an Iranian led attack that could cause all the Islamic states to align against the USA out of self-preservation.

· America will have been exposed as a military and political paper tiger that is unwilling to defend its most vital strategic interests. This will place President Musharraf in a very difficult position in Pakistan where 160 million Muslims would no longer accept the necessity of cooperating with America. This would further imperil Afghanistan, and might create an upheaval in Pakistan that could result in nuclear weapons in the hands of Islamic radicals with unlimited proliferation potential.

· America would be left with no credible military deterrent to Iran's nuclear ambitions. 

Emphasize America’s Military, Strategic & Economic Vulnerabilities After Retreat

Once in Iraq, the Iranians, the Iraqis and the Syrians could form a military alliance that could threaten all of the militarily weak Arab Gulf States. America would be in a very poor position to resist a takeover of all the Middle East oilfields by an Iranian led alliance that had assistance from Russia and China in the form of satellite intelligence, sophisticated weaponry, logistical and technical support.  Please consider the following strategic realities that would follow an American withdrawal from the Middle East:

· The Iranian armed forces have at least 600,000 men under arms and a 10 million man citizens army standing by. Syria and Iraq could add another 500 thousand men under arms. This force would dwarf the remaining American and Gulf State armed forces.

· America’s ground forces in the Middle East would be down to non-deterrent levels and those who are left would be at very great risk of destruction. There would be no time to move adequate deterrent forces back to the region. The Gulf States armed forces are not capable of resisting an Iranian led assault alone.

· The Iranian led forces would be vulnerable to air attacks, but all of America’s airbases in the region would be vulnerable to an Iranian led ground and airborne attack.  Loss of the bases would negate the effectiveness of America’s air forces.

· Iran is believed to possess the Russian “Sizzler” anti-ship missile that can strike ships at above Mach 3.  The U.S. Navy has not proven its defense capabilities against the missile.  If the USA’s defenses are not effective, the U.S. Navy will be incapable of resisting Iranian aggression.  The destruction of one or more American carriers would be a devastating blow to America’s psyche and the world’s perceptions of the USA’s invincibility.

· Long range strategic and nuclear bombing of Iran would be a difficult political sell to the world community as a means to preserve our access to oil. It would likely be of little deterrent value, or practical military effect after the initial takeover of the Gulf States is completed.

After betraying its strategic allies in the region, America would struggle to find bases to launch attacks to retake the Middle East oilfields.  Even if America ultimately mustered the means and the forces to retake the Middle East, it would be at be at extremely high cost in lives and dollars that would dwarf the cost of maintaining an effective deterrent in Iraq.  Add to that the reality that almost all of the oil infrastructure in the region would likely be destroyed and would take years to rebuild.

Forcefully Emphasize the Huge Economic Consequences that Could Unfold

The foundation of the American economy is the USA’s global military primacy and its willingness to defend its most vital strategic interests.  Surrender in Iraq would destroy both of these underpinnings of the American economy, and could ultimately result in a cut off access to low cost crude oil.  This scenario could produce the following very plausible consequences:

· U.S. oil product prices and unemployment would skyrocket.

· U.S. stock market values would collapse.

· The U.S. dollar’s value would plunge to Third World currency levels.

· U.S. treasury securities would be highly devalued and new issues would be impossible to sell to investors in the quantities needed to fund the U.S. budget deficit.

Such a disaster would economically shatter every American household, but Americans do not understand the magnitude of these devastating consequences of the Democrat’s retreat strategy.  All of this may sound like alarmism to the uniformed, but it is very plausible if America retreats from Iraq.

Take Radical & Relentless Action to Counter the Democrat’s Demagoguery on Iraq

To defeat the Democrat’s self-serving and ruinous scheme, and to regain the political initiative, the President and the Republicans should immediately shift to the following strategy:

· Disclose all of the realities listed above to the American people. Speeches alone would not be enough. They need to invest in a team of aggressively articulate spokesmen/ women that can lead a huge media campaign that will expose the Democrat’s self-serving demagoguery on the war while building public support for an even greater commitment to defense of America’s strategic interests in the Middle East.

· Stop relying on the President to make the case for the war. He seems to be both disinterested and ineffective in making the case, and he has lost the confidence of most Americans. Also stop using Dick Cheney as a lead spokesperson on the war. Rightly or wrongly he does not have the confidence of the American people. The President and Dick Cheney represent the ineffective past of the Republican Party, not its dynamic and visionary future. Clear thinking Republicans need to cut the cord.

· Convert the Republican caucus in Congress from obscurity into an articulate and effective source of political leadership.  Elect an articulate and media saavy leader of the overall Republican caucus in Congress.  Make this person responsible for leading and executing the political strategy described in this analysis.  Make his/her office the frontline in aggressively dealing with the media, and making the compelling political arguments. 

· Disconnect America’s fate in Iraq from the “surge” by shifting the debate to the strategic necessity of maintaining a long term military deterrent to protect America’s strategic interests, and to destroy the ambitions of radical Islam.

· Point out that America maintained huge ground forces in Europe for almost 60 years as a deterrent to the USSR. A similar long term commitment in the Middle East is required until America can wean itself off of crude oil, and destroy radical Islam.

· Point out that the $100 billion yearly cost of a military commitment in Iraq is a small price to pay to protect America’s $4 trillion annual economy from a disaster that would devastate American civilization.

· Point out that the only true economic cost of the war is the loss of raw materials, and that the rest of the funds are plowed back into the American economy.

· Define the cost of the military commitment as being a cost of maintaining America’s addiction to crude oil, and use that reality as a hammer to motivate every American to reduce their consumption and increase domestic production and alternative energy sources so we can eventually bring our soldiers home.

· Point out that the loss of our brave soldiers in Iraq is a grievous tragedy, but the American way of life is well worth defending and freedom is never free. Our soldiers understand this and are willing to risk their lives to prove it. The Republicans should help other Americans reach the same level of consciousness, and ask them to make sacrifices to the cause of preserving the American way of life. That should include support for a significant expansion of America’s ground force military capabilities in the Middle East to effectively deter America’s enemies.

· Point out that America’s economic success is highly dependent on our willingness to effectively defend our most important strategic interests as well as our strategic allies. A retreat from Iraq would signal a surrender of America’s moral, economic and military primacy.

· Point out that the Baker Hamilton Report is a 'Munich like' disaster couched in a politically convenient 'Real Politic' facade. The last thing America needs is another 'Paris Peace Accord' with tyrants who are pledged to our destruction. All it would do is put a dangerous fig leaf on the problem that would guarantee a catastrophic outcome for America.

· Point out that it is impossible to negotiate an acceptable outcome in Iraq with tyrants from a position of political and military weakness, and that weakness always invites aggression. Strong military and political deterrence is all our enemy’s respect, and we cannot be strong politically unless we are united. Must an economic catastrophe occur before we unite to show our enemies that we are determined to prevail no matter how long it takes? Should Americans allow the Democrats to help radical Islam divide and conquer America?

· Point out that the Democrat’s strategy of denial and inaction against radical Islam was tried by President Clinton, and it resulted in 9/11.

· Point out that retreat from Vietnam did not threaten American civilization, but a retreat from Iraq absolutely will threaten America's access to the crude oil that runs the American economy. Perhaps Harry Reid would feel safe in a world where Iran, Russia and Venezuela controlled over 80% of the world's oil reserves, but his ignorance of the economic catastrophe that would ensue is not a reason for any sane person to take that chance. America’s enemies are counting on people like Harry Reid to help them destroy America from within. Americans are counting on people like you to expose the folly of the defeatists in America.

· Ask Americans the question if they are truly ready to risk their family's and their country’s future on the Harry Reid's insane notion that America can retreat from Iraq regardless of the consequences based on a strategic premise that is nothing more than wishful thinking. Al Qaeda and radical Iranians are praying at least four times a day that a lot of misguided Americans will make that decision.

· Energize every Republican Party office nationwide to deliver this message to donors and constituents by every means possible.

Reframe the War Rationale & Offer a Realistic Strategic Vision for Iraq

Republicans should explain all the points above, but they must also offer America a path to ultimate success in Iraq. The Iraq situation is highly complicated, and there are no easy or costless solutions. However, below is a summary of ideas that should be seriously considered:

· American political leaders must unite to convince the American people that the creation of a peaceful and secure Iraq that is friendly to the USA is absolutely critical to America's national security.

· America must reconfirm its determination to prevail in Iraq, and send a significantly larger ground force to Iraq to effectively suppress Al Qaeda and the sectarian insurgents. The currently planned surge levels are inadequate.

· America should aggressively facilitate a partition of Iraq into three autonomous regions along sectarian lines:

§ A Kurdish area in the north

§ A Shiite area in the south

§ A Sunni Area in the west central and southwest area

· Each autonomous region should have the option to form its own nation independent of Iraq.  Iraq's oil fields should be distributed to each area based on population.

· Compensation and relocation of displaced sects from one region to the other should be financed by the Arab Gulf states, the USA and other countries around the world. The USA's investment could be offset by provision of permanent bases within the Iraqi regions for a large contingent of U.S. ground and air forces.

· The American forces would guaranty Iraq's territorial integrity and provide a strong deterrent to Iranian ambitions to overrun the Middle East oilfields. The cost of maintaining the USA forces would be a wise investment for the USA economy to preserve access to Middle East oil until America's reliance on crude oil imports can be radically reduced. The cost should also provide a strong incentive to pursue methods of reducing crude oil consumption in the USA.

· The Arab Gulf States should agree to subsidize the Sunni areas of Iraq until the large oilfields in southwest Iraq can be fully developed to producing status. This subsidy would be an investment in Iraqi stability and a hedge against Iranian ambitions.

· The Israelis should be asked to make territorial concessions to reach peace with the Palestinians and in exchange for America's investment in Iraq to provide a deterrent to Iranian ambitions to destroy Israel. The Palestinians should be pressured by all the Arab states to reach peace with Israel and give up all rights of return as part of the settlement. The Arab Gulf States could compensate the Palestinians with subsidies to offset the give up of their right of return.

Obviously there are no easy solutions to the Middle East issues, but there should be the seeds of a settlement in the concepts described above because it is in the clear strategic interest of all concerned (except Al Qaeda and Iran) to reach a comprehensive settlement. What is missing is strong political leadership from the USA. President Bush and the Republicans have not adopted the strategies I have suggested in this message, and the Democrats are too absorbed with their mad rush to absolute political power that they are incapable of considering anyone's interests but their own, much less offering a comprehensive solution. In fact, their surrender strategy in Iraq will make a comprehensive settlement completely unattainable, and will lead America down a path to certain catastrophe.

Summary

The President is a decent man, but he has been dangerously ineffective in explaining the compelling stakes in Iraq to the American people, or in articulating a long term vision for success.  His political opponents have seized on this deficiency as a strategy to obtain political power.  That leaves the door open for the "pied pipers' of the Democrat Party and the liberal media to help Al Qaeda and Iran lead America into a disastrous abyss.  America's enemies understand all of this, and they have been enjoying the spectacle of America’s self-destruction in a cauldron of strategic ignorance, apathy, political ineptitude, media duplicity, ineffective leadership and self-serving demagoguery by Democrats.

In the long term, the President cannot win this conflict with the Democrat’s on the strength of his Presidential powers.  He and the Republicans must win the hearts, minds and confidence of Americans by telling them the whole truth and offering compelling insights on the situation as well as a winning vision for the future.  The President and other Republicans must stop being political punching bags, take the gloves off and become ruthlessly articulate and effective leaders and counter-punchers for their points of view.  If they fight back in the ways I have suggested, they will see their poll numbers rise and regain the respect of more Americans along with the power they need to affect positive outcomes on the full range of issues.  If the Republicans do not adopt a strategy similar to this, they risk a political catastrophe in 2008.  However, if they vigorously adopt this strategy, the Democrats will be rightfully assigned to the dust bin of history in 2008 for pursuing a political strategy on the Iraq war that fostered their lust for political power at the expense of America's national security. 

It is no longer enough for Republicans to be right on the need to persist in Iraq.  They have to be highly aggressive in artuclating the compelling case for continuing the war for as long as it takes to defeat radical Islam, and to secure America's most vital strategic interests. 

The American people will prevail in the war with radical Islam if they are well led, well informed, politically united and determined to prevail.  Unfortunately, they are none of these things at this time, and that makes it important that people like you to take a leadership roll in the Republican Party.  If Americans fully understand the stakes in Iraq, they will be demanding that the USA expand its military capabilities and reinforce its commitment to defend our most vital strategic interests, and to defeat the ambitions of radical Islam no matter how long it takes.

Please help me spread this important message before it is too late.  The Democrats and Radical Islam are counting on people like you to be apathetic to this message.

The author of this message can be reached at PoliticalRealityOnline@Yahoo.com. 

Please visit www.PoliticalRealityOnline.com for additional insights and to purchase the riveting new political thriller novel "Divided We Fall" which offers a compelling and entertaining projection of the catastrophe that could unfold if America retreats from Iraq.